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Citation Information

Type Report
Title By how much has school participation declined as a result of the pandemic?
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2021
URL http://www.myemissions.co.za/Decline in attendance 2021 11 30.pdf
Abstract
This report was prompted by a problem in the analysis in the NIDS-CRAM Wave 5 report dealing with pandemic-related declines in school attendance. These declines were estimated to be in the region of 500,000. In that analysis, the pre-pandemic baseline estimate of dropping
out, which drew from General Household Survey data, did not consider older learners, meaning the baseline estimate was too low. It was at first believed that correcting this would lead to a smaller impact on attendance. However, a re-analysis of the data pointed to a further problem.
Once this was corrected, the loss in participation was found to be greater than the original 500,000. My analysis indicates that dropping out did not
worsen in grades 10 to 12 during the pandemic. The original NIDS-CRAM report had indicated that the problem was worst at the secondary level.

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