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Citation Information

Type Working Paper - NIDS-CRAM Working Paper
Title The labour market impacts of COVID-19: An update with NIDS-CRAM Wave 3
Issue 2
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2021
We use Wave 3 of NIDS-CRAM data to provide an update to previous estimates (Jain, Bassier, et al., 2020; Jain, Budlender, et al., 2020) of COVID-19-related employment impacts in South Africa. We find evidence of a substantial job market recovery in October. We previously found a 40% drop in April compared to February active employment, partially recovering to a 20% drop by June. We now find that by October the proportion of actively employed adults appears close to its February pre-pandemic level. The difference between February and October active employment (a 0.15% decline) is not statistically significant, but due to precision limitations the data still allow for a nonnegligible drop in employment. However we can confidently rule out a February to October decline in active employment greater than 4.7%. We perform a number of robustness checks which affirm the plausibility of this surprisingly large recovery. We additionally present results on earnings changes and social protection coverage.

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